Al-Qa`ida in Iraq (AQI) is a shadow of its former self, primarily because broad sectors of Iraq’s Sunni population rejected it after more than three years of active and tacit cooperation. That AQI’s ideological extremism alienated many Iraqis is well understood, but radicalism alone does not fully explain AQI’s decline: poor leadership, vulnerable communication mechanisms, tension between Iraqi and foreign members, and weak indoctrination efforts contributed to strategic and tactical blunders that alienated even other Sunni insurgents. In lieu of major social and political shifts (which are possible) that offer AQI a sustained safe-haven, these dynamics are unlikely to change dramatically; they serve as important obstacles to AQI’s resurrection. Conversely, al-Qa`ida elements elsewhere, primarily along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, are hindered less by these weaknesses. There are lessons from the fight against AQI that are applicable in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but al-Qa`ida’s operations there are likely to be much more durable than those in Iraq. Section I of this paper traces al-Qa`ida in Iraq’s transition from welcome partner to mortal enemy of Iraq’s Sunni insurgents, focusing particularly on the Islamic Army of Iraq. Section II draws on declassified internal AQI correspondence and open sources to describe how external pressures from U.S. forces and tribal sources exacerbated AQI’s fallout with other insurgents while rending the movement from within. Section III assesses AQI’s prospects in Iraq and the impact of AQI’s failure on the future of the global jihadist movement. Section IV offers recommendations for containing AQI in the future and for applying the lessons of AQI’s demise to other elements.
Associated Harmony Documents
Threatening Communiqué from al-Qa`ida in the Land of the Two Rivers
NMEC-2007-637951
This document is addressed to the members of the tribes Albu-Farag, Albu-Ayesha, Albu-Fahed, Albu-Obyed, Albu-Baly, Karttan, Albu-Huziem, Alkarablah, Almalahama, and...
Read MoreLetters to the Leadership of ISI about Issues of Single-party Control
NMEC-2007-637001
This document is a letter sent by Ansar al Islam to the ISI asking for a public written statement that...
Read MoreDetails commentary and respond to the Islamic Army letter
NMEC-2007-637054
This document is a draft that was written by a member of al-Qa`ida in Iraq as a suggested response to...
Read MoreCommandment of the Sharia Court of the Diyala Province
NMEC-2007-637136
This document is a commandment of the Sharia Court of the Diyala province in Iraq to adhere to the laws...
Read MoreWill and Testament of a Suicide Bomber
NMEC-2007-637872
This document is the will and testament of an al-Qa`ida suicide bomber “martyr." In this document the author asks his...
Read MoreA Statement From the Islamic Army in Iraq
NMEC-2007-637885
This document is a statement that was issued by the Islamic Army in Iraq. The authors starts with a short...
Read MoreLetter from Abu Hamza to Ansar al-Sunnah Highlighting Divisions
NMEC-2007-636878
This document is a letter from Abu Hamzah in response to unfriendly letters he received. In his letter, Abu Hamzah...
Read MoreIncident Comment from the ISI Ministry of Defense (Dated 5/22/2007)
NMEC-2007-636973
This document is a statement released by the Islamic State of Iraq Ministry of Defense to clarify the killing of...
Read MorePoints of Agreement Between the Doctor and Abu Sa`di
NMEC-2007-636896
This document is a record of an agreement between the Doctor (Al-Hajji) and ISI (represented by Abu Sa`di) to cease...
Read MoreAnalysis of the State of ISI
NMEC-2007-612449
This document is an excerpt from the paper of an ISI member that details what he believes are the problems...
Read MoreISI Report on the Killing of 12 Jaysh al-Mujahedeen Members
SOCOM-2010-0000002
This document is a report on the 12 Jaysh al-Mujahedeen personnel who were killed by ISI. The author begins his...
Read MoreAttack Explanation Letter to a Sheik
SOCOM-2010-0000003
This document is a letter to a Sheikh explaining the ISI attack in Arab Jabour in Baghdad on 12 leaders...
Read MoreLetters between Abu Hamza and a member of al-Ansar (Page 1)
NMEC-2007-636892
This document is the first page of a letter to Abu Hamza from a member of al-Ansar about the recent...
Read MoreLetter from Abu Hamza al-Mujahir to Abi `Abdullah al-Shafi`i
NMEC-2007-636898
This document is part of a letter from Abu Hamza to Abu `Abdullah al-Shafi`i. In this letter, Abu Hamza starts...
Read MoreIncident Comment from the ISI Ministry of Defense (Dated 6/2/2007)
NMEC-2007-637011
This document is a compilation of handwritten letters. These letters were directed from an individual named Shu`ayb to Emir Abu...
Read MorePress Release of an ISI Amir in Reaction to Attacks in the Amireah Region
NMEC-2007-639155
This document is a press release from the office of Amir al-Mu'menin (Abu `Umar al-Baghdadi) in reference to the attacks...
Read MoreLetter to Abu Hamzah Asking to Fix Mistakes in the Field
NMEC-2007-636885
This document is a letter to Abu Hamzah from Abu Fatima, requesting that he correct recent problems and investigate the...
Read MoreLetters between Abu Hamza and a member of al-Ansar (Page 3)
NMEC-2007-636880
This document is the third page of a letter sent to Abu Hamza from a member of al-Ansar about the...
Read MoreLetters between Abu Hamza and a member of al-Ansar (Page 2)
NMEC-2007-636888
This document is the second page of letter to Abu Hamza from a member of al-Ansar about the recent tensions...
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